JOHN E. GIBSON, Ph.D., was the Commonwealth Distinguished Professor of Systems Management at the School of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Virginia, Charlottesville. He served as Dean of Engineering at the University of Virginia and at Oakland University. Dr. Gibson was working on this book at the time of his death.
WILLIAM T. SCHERER, Ph.D., is a Professor in the Department of Systems and Information Engineering at the University of Virginia, where he teaches courses on systems engineering. Dr. Scherer was a student in Dr. Gibson's classes and later became a colleague. Dr. Scherer has authored and co-authored numerous publications on intelligent decision support systems, stochastic control, systems engineering education, and financial engineering. He is a former President of IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) Society and has won numerous teaching awards while at the University of Virginia.
WILLIAM F. GIBSON, MBA, MPA, is the Senior Managing Director and President of IVY Creek Associates, an international consulting firm for global asset managers, brokerage firms, and banks. He was Global Chief Operating Officer at ING Investment Management, and the Head of Securities and Fund Services Operations—EMEA at Citigroup. Mr. Gibson has led the infrastructure groups of global financial services firms, and is actively engaged in developing and applying new technologies in those domains. He has also been an executive lecturer at the S.C. Johnson Graduate School of Management at Cornell University.
MICHAEL C. SMITH, Ph.D., is the Executive Director of the Accelerated Masters Program in Systems Engineering at the University of Virginia. Prior to joining the University of Virginia, Dr. Smith was a Senior Scientist at Science Applications International Corporation (now Leidos) and also served on the Industrial Engineering faculties at Oregon State University and the University of Missouri. In addition to directing the University of Virginia's Accelerated Master's Program, Dr. Smith teaches an introductory course in systems thinking and the systems approach, drawing on many of the case studies in this book.
Preface ix
Original Preface from Jack Gibson xiii
Acknowledgments xv
About the Companion Website xvii
Part One: Primer
1. Introduction 3
1.1 What is a System? 4
1.2 Terminology Confusion 6
1.3 Systems Analysis Equals Operations Research Plus Policy Analysis 10
1.4 Attributes of Large-Scale Systems 11
1.5 Transportation Systems: An Example of a Large-Scale System 13
1.6 Systems Integration 16
1.7 What Makes a “Systems Analysis” Different? 17
1.8 Distant Roots of Systems Analysis 19
1.9 Immediate Precursors to Systems Analysis 20
1.10 Development of Systems Analysis as a Distinct Discipline: The Influence of RAND 23
References 26
2. Six Major Phases of Systems Analysis 28
2.1 The Systems Analysis Method: Six Major Phases 28
2.1.1 Determine Goals 28
2.1.2 Establish Criteria for Ranking Alternative Candidates 30
2.1.3 Develop Alternative Solutions 31
2.1.4 Rank Alternatives 32
2.1.5 Iterate 34
2.1.6 Action 35
2.2 The Goal-Centered or Top-Down Approach 35
2.3 The Index of Performance Concept 41
2.4 Developing Alternative Scenarios 45
2.5 Ranking Alternatives 47
2.6 Iteration and the “Error-Embracing” Approach 47
2.7 The Action Phase: The Life Cycle of a System 51
References 53
3. Goal Development 55
3.1 Seven Steps in Goal Development 55
3.2 On Generalizing the Question 59
3.3 The Descriptive Scenario 61
3.4 The Normative Scenario 63
3.5 The Axiological Component 63
3.6 Developing an Objectives Tree 67
3.7 Validate 73
3.8 Iterate 74
References 75
4. The Index of Performance 76
4.1 Introduction 76
4.2 Desirable Characteristics for an Index of Performance 78
4.3 Economic Criteria 81
4.4 Four Common Criteria of Economic Efficiency 83
4.5 Is There a Problem with Multiple Criteria? 86
4.6 What is Wrong with the B–C Ratio? 90
4.7 Can IRR be Fixed? 92
4.8 Expected Monetary Value 94
4.9 Nonmonetary Performance Indices 96
References 99
5. Develop and Evaluate Alternative Candidate Solutions 101
5.1 Introduction 101
5.2 The Classical Approach to Creativity 101
5.3 Concepts in Creativity 103
5.4 Brainstorming 104
5.5 Brainwriting 107
5.6 Dynamic Confrontation 109
5.7 Zwicky’s Morphological Box 110
5.8 The Options Field/Options Profile Approach 112
5.9 Computer Creativity 115
5.10 Trade Study Methods 116
5.11 Trade Study Example 120
References 127
6. The 10 Golden Rules of Systems Analysis 130
6.1 Introduction 130
6.2 Rule 1: There Always is a Client 131
6.3 Rule 2: Your Client Does Not Understand His Own Problem 132
6.4 Rule 3: The Original Problem Statement is too Specific: You Must Generalize the Problem to Give it Contextual Integrity 133
6.5 Rule 4: The Client Does Not Understand the Concept of the Index of Performance 135
6.6 Rule 5: You are the Analyst, Not the Decision Maker 137
6.7 Rule 6: Meet the Time Deadline and the Cost Budget 139
6.8 Rule 7: Take a Goal-Centered Approach to the Problem, not a Technology-Centered or Chronological Approach 140
6.9 Rule 8: Non-users Must Be Considered in the Analysis and in the Final Recommendations 141
6.10 Rule 9: The Universal Computer Model is a Fantasy 143
6.11 Rule 10: The Role of Decision Maker in Public Systems is Often a Confused One 143
References 145
Part Two: Casebook
Cases in Systems Engineering 149
Introduction 149
The Case Study Method 151
What is a “Case”? 152
Implementing the Case Study Method 152
Chat Rooms and Polls 152
In-Class Group Activities 153
Case Study Assignments 153
Peer Review 154
The Case Studies 154
Using Case Studies to Build Teamwork and Communications Skills 154
Building the Systems Team 155
Tips on Managing the Team 156
How to Make an Effective Oral Presentation 157
How to Write a Report 162
Aligning Case Studies with the Ten Golden Rules of Systems Analysis 164
To Winnebago or to not Winnebago? 164
How can this Case be Used to Teach and Reinforce Systems Analysis? 169
A Word about the Cases 170
Validation of Learning: Evidence-Based Learning 170
Sample Evaluation Instrument: Exam with Solutions 171
Sample Evaluation Instrument: Exam without Solutions 176
Case 1: Great Buys 183
Case 2: Surf’s Up? 188
Case 3: Extended Engineering Education 189
Case 4: Systems Engineering Majors Proliferating 192
Case 5: Motor Carrier Safety and Compliance 193
Case 6: Is Getting There Half the Fun? 202
Case 7: Is Getting There Half the Fun? (Revisited) 206
Case 8: Which Camper Should We Choose? 210
Case 9: Seat Belt Issue 217
Case 10: Baseball Free Agent Draft—20xx 219
Case 11: For the Birds? 221
Case 12: Wal-Mart Crisis 222
Case 13: Ocean Cleanup 224
Case 14: BRAC 226
Case 15: Opportunity? 227
Case 16: Risky Business 228
Case 17: Corporate Headquarters 230
Case 18: The Ad Forecaster 231
Case 19: For the Birds (Revisited) 232
Case 20: Best MBA? 234
Case 21: Health Insurance? What Health Insurance? 235
Case 22: Social Media in Emergency Management 237
Case 23: Which Bridges to Repair? 241
Case 24: Going-to-the-Sun Road Rehabilitation Project 245
Case 25: HEV versus HOV? 256
Case 26: “Show Me the Money!” 259
Case 27: The Collections Subsidiary 261
Case 28: MNB One Credit Card Portfolio 266
Case 29: Select Collections 273
Case 30: To Distance or Not to Distance? Is That the Question? 278
Index 279
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