Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance

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Format: Paperback
Pub. Date: 2000-09-04
Publisher(s): Cambridge University Press
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Summary

Although many of the models commonly used in empirical finance are linear, the nature of financial data suggests that non-linear models are more appropriate for forecasting and accurately describing returns and volatility. The enormous number of non-linear time series models appropriate for modeling and forecasting economic time series models makes choosing the best model for a particular application daunting. This classroom-tested advanced undergraduate and graduate textbook - the most up to-date and accessible guide available - provides a rigorous treatment of recently developed non-linear models, including regime-switching and artificial neural networks. The focus is on the potential applicability for describing and forecasting financial asset returns and their associated volatility. The models are analysed in detail and are not treated as 'black boxes'. Illustrated using a wide range of financial data, drawn from sources including the financial markets of Tokyo, London and Frankfurt.

Table of Contents

List of figures
ix
List of tables
xi
Preface xv
Introduction
1(19)
Introduction and outline of the book
1(4)
Typical features of financial time series
5(15)
Some concepts in time series analysis
20(49)
Preliminaries
20(7)
Empirical specification strategy
27(17)
Forecasting returns with linear models
44(7)
Unit roots and seasonality
51(10)
Aberrant observations
61(8)
Regime-switching models for returns
69(66)
Representation
71(12)
Estimation
83(17)
Testing for regime-switching nonlinearity
100(8)
Diagnostic checking
108(9)
Forecasting
117(8)
Impulse response functions
125(7)
On multivariate regime-switching models
132(3)
Regime-switching models for volatility
135(71)
Representation
136(21)
Testing for GARCH
157(13)
Estimation
170(12)
Diagnostic checking
182(5)
Forecasting
187(10)
Impulse response functions
197(3)
On multivariate GARCH models
200(6)
Artificial neural networks for returns
206(45)
Representation
207(8)
Estimation
215(7)
Model evaluation and model selection
222(12)
Forecasting
234(3)
ANNs and other regime-switching models
237(8)
Testing for nonlinearity using ANNs
245(6)
Conclusions
251(3)
Bibliography 254(18)
Author index 272(5)
Subject index 277

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